Polls on Israel-Gaza Unclear, Trump Now Winning Young Voters

The Israeli -Hamas conflict has become the United States' biggest foreign policy issue in the past three years.  However, the conflict has impacted voting in the United States in a way many would not expect, with young people siding with former President Trump (R) on the issue over President Joe Biden (D).

The United States has been a long-standing ally of the state of Israel since its inception in the 1940s.  Liberal and conservative presidential administrations alike have reaffirmed support for Israel throughout the region in different ways.  However, the issue has become partisan for voters this time.

Young Americans have been a sure voting block for Democrats in recent decades, but the 18-29 age group solidly prefers Donald Trump when it comes to the current conflict in Gaza.  According to a New York Times/Siena College poll released on Tuesday, 72% of registered voters aged 18-29 disapprove of Biden's handling of the conflict.

Since young people virtually always show up to the polls for Democrats on Election Day, this issue may be critical for President Biden to tackle as Trump now leads this demographic of voters overall by 6 points among registered voters aged 18-29 years old. In July of 2023, Biden led voters in this age group by 10 points.

Last presidential election, exit polls showed Biden winning this age group by 21%.  Among all registered voters Trump holds a narrow 2% to Biden, which may be tight, but is greater than what might be expected if the 2020 election was used as a reference to predict 2024.

While this may be good news for Donald Trump, not all of the numbers are in this Republican's favor.  A recent poll has found that around 40% of Jewish Israelis support Joe Biden, and only about a quarter want to see Trump take office again.  This number used to be in Trump's favor with 63% in 2020, and 17% backing Biden.

This creates ambiguity as to whether Biden is handling the crisis in the Middle East well.  The numbers could also be due to Trump's odd and newfound rivalry with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who Trump is reported to have called to be impeached following the October 7th massacre.